Lakers' Walker Kessler Is Shaping Games Well Beyond His Box Score

Walker Kessler's box-score numbers for the Lakers look solid but not spectacular: 14.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and about four combined steals and blocks a night. Alex Regla of SB Nation's Silver Screen and Roll argues that those averages undersell what the new center has done for a 7-2 team, and the supporting numbers back him up.

The defensive split is the clearest case. Through nine games, Los Angeles has a 110.1 defensive rating with Kessler on the floor and 117.2 with him off it. By Regla's comparison, that is the gap between the league's eighth-best defense and its 26th. Opponents take only 26.9% of their shots at the rim when Kessler plays, and when they do get there, they don't finish well. Among the 12 players who have defended at least 50 shots within six feet, Kessler allows the lowest shooting percentage (45.1%) and has contested the second-most attempts, behind only Victor Wembanyama, according to NBA tracking data cited by SB Nation. With Kessler behind them, the Lakers' wings can gamble for steals, and the team has been among the league leaders in forced turnovers.

On offense, his value shows up more in what defenses do than in his own scoring. After his lob-heavy opening night, opponents started packing the paint to take away his rolls. That has opened shots on the perimeter. The Lakers' offensive rebounding rate rises by nearly 10 percentage points with Kessler on the floor, and defenders sinking toward him to box out leave the corners open. Los Angeles is shooting 43.9% from the corners, second-best in the league. He is still learning the timing and angles of setting screens for Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, a much deeper set of guards than he had in Utah.

Wednesday's 116-103 win in Sacramento showed both sides of his game. Silver Screen and Roll reported that Kessler had five points and three rebounds through three quarters while Domantas Sabonis outplayed him. He then put up 10 points, five rebounds and four blocks in the fourth to finish with 15 points and eight rebounds. Afterward he called Sabonis a "really physical player." The steady work matches what JJ Redick asked of him in the preseason, when, as ESPN reported, the two settled on "relentless" as his watchword for the year.

What it means against Portland

The Lakers host the Trail Blazers on Friday riding a three-game winning streak, with wins over Toronto (131-125), Miami (138-117) and Sacramento. Portland is the only team to beat Los Angeles at home so far this season. That 136-129 loss was the most points the Lakers have allowed in any game. Keeping Portland out of the paint, Kessler's specialty, is the most direct way to avoid a repeat.

On this site's board for the game, the Lakers are favored at -144 on Novig, with Portland at +141. Novig has the spread at Lakers -3.5 at +102, and the best Lakers spread price anywhere is Pinnacle's -107 at -3. Novig's total is 231.5, with the over at -100 and the under at -102. Hard Rock Bet has the best under number, 232.5 at -115. Across the 12 venues, sportsbook hold runs from roughly 2.4% to 5.4% depending on the market, so the prices differ only modestly from one venue to the next.

The game tips off on Prime Video and Spectrum SportsNet.