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Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers

Portland Trail Blazers (6-1) at Los Angeles Lakers (7-2) · Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Lakers is favored at -141 with the spread at Los Angeles Lakers -3.5 and the total at 231.5.

Crypto.com Arena
Crypto.com Arena. Photo: InvadingInvader, CC BY-SA 4.0
Preview

Trail Blazers at Lakers: Portland's 6-1 Start Meets 7-2 Lakers in Friday Rematch

Two of the West's hottest starts meet at crypto.com Arena, with Luka Doncic carrying the Lakers' biggest number against a Blazers team that has lost once.

Friday night at crypto.com Arena brings a rematch between two teams with a combined 13-3 record. Portland arrives at 6-1, the Lakers sit at 7-2, and the winner leaves with an early claim on one of the better starts in the conference. Tip-off is 10:00 PM ET on Prime Video, Spectrum Sports Net and Spectrum Sports Net +.

The Lakers come in with roster chatter around them. Heavy.com reports a major update on Sandro Mamukelashvili ahead of the Blazers rematch, and the same outlet reports that three high-value centers have emerged as top trade targets. Lake Show Life argues that Jarred Vanderbilt has already made the decision not to trade him look wise. Lakers Daily reports that Luka Doncic's manager explained how the Lakers coach earned a spot in his inner circle.

Doncic is the center of the matchup, and his points line of 35.5 is the highest on the board by a wide margin. Austin Reaves is set at 21.5. On the other side of the prop list, Deni Avdija carries a 23.5 line and Damian Lillard sits at 20.5, while Jrue Holiday is at 13.5. Toumani Camara, Walker Kessler and Scoot Henderson are each set at 11.5. The question is whether anyone can slow Doncic enough to keep Portland's balance in play, or whether the Lakers' top-end scoring decides it.

The market leans toward the home team without much margin. The Lakers are 3.5-point favorites, and the total is set at 231.5, a number that expects both offenses to keep the pace up. For a pair of teams that have combined for three losses, a single possession could separate them late.

Prices

12 venues · refreshed every 10 min
VenueMoneylineSpreadTotal
PORLALPORLALOverUnder
NovigNovig+138-141+3.5-108-3.5+106231.5-106231.5+102
DraftKingsDraftKings+130-154+3.5-116-3.5-105231.5-112231.5-108
FanDuelFanDuel+132-156+3.5-112-3.5-106231.5-110231.5-108
BetMGMBetMGM+125-155+3.5-115-3.5-105231.5-110231.5-110
bet365bet365+130-155+3.5-115-3.5-105231.5-111231.5-109
BetRiversBetRivers+125-152+2.5-104-2.5-120233.5-109233.5-114
Hard Rock BetHard Rock Bet+135-165+3.5-115-3.5-105232.5-105232.5-115
theScore BettheScore Bet+135-155+3.5-110-3.5-110231.5-110231.5-110
FanaticsFanatics+130-155+3-110-3-110232-110232-110
PinnaclePinnacle+131-145+3-105-3-105232-106232-106
KalshiKalshi+129-154––––
PolymarketPolymarket+131-151––––

Best price on each side is marked: on a spread or total, the best number first, then the best price at it. Kalshi and Polymarket are shown after their fees.

Player props

Main lines at Novig and the sportsbooks, best price on each side.

PlayerLineOverUnder
Luka Doncic
Points
34.5-122DraftKings-105DraftKings
Deni Avdija
Points
23.5-108Novig+104Novig
Austin Reaves
Points
21.5-117Novig+111Novig
Damian Lillard
Points
21.5+103Pinnacle-122FanDuel
Jrue Holiday
Points
13.5-111Novig+104Novig
Walker Kessler
Points
12.5-110BetMGM+106Novig
Scoot Henderson
Points
11.5-100Novig+100DraftKings
Toumani Camara
Points
11.5-113Novig+100DraftKings
Donovan Clingan
Points
10.5-100Novig-106Novig
Collin Sexton
Points
8.5-115DraftKings-110BetMGM
Sandro Mamukelashvili
Points
7.5-125BetMGM-105BetMGM
Ziaire Williams
Points
7.5+102FanDuel-111Novig

The Sharp Desk on this game

All picks
Lou
Veteran market maker
Pending
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers· Fri, Nov 6 · 10:00 PM ET
Spread
Portland Trail Blazers +3.5
-106
Novig

Lakers at -144 on the moneyline works out to about 59 percent, which prices a field-goal favorite, not more. Somebody's dealing Portland +3.5 at -106, so you own the hook over 3, the most common margin in the sport, for roughly a coin-flip price. That half-point is money, kid, and it's sitting right there in Portland's column.

Lou
Veteran market maker
Pending
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers· Fri, Nov 6 · 10:00 PM ET
Total
Over 231.5
-102
Novig

The total is split across venues, 231.5 on one side and 232.5 on the other, so the fair number sits near 232. Over 231.5 at -102 gets you the low end of that range at close to even money, while the under at -115 charges you about 53.5 percent for the high end. I watched shops get split on a total like this back in '94 too, and you take the cheap side of the gap. Over.

Lou
Veteran market maker
Pending
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers· Fri, Nov 6 · 10:00 PM ET
Player pick · Points
Austin Reaves under 21.5 points
+120
Novig

Reaves at 21.5 is a tight two-way market, -117 over and +120 under, and the two sides add up to under 100 percent implied. That means plus money on the under is priced near fair, around 45.5 percent, and you aren't paying any tax for it. I don't care who's hot, I care what it costs, and +120 on a coin-flip number is the price I want. Under.

The Quant
Ex hedge-fund quant
Pending
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers· Fri, Nov 6 · 10:00 PM ET
Moneyline
Los Angeles Lakers to win
-144
Novig

The price implies roughly 59% for the Lakers at home, and I have it nearer 62, so the gap is about three points. Portland at 6-1 and the Lakers at 7-2 are both small samples, and seven games is an anecdote, not evidence, so I lean on home court and a modest edge. I would step aside if the price drifted past 62% or if credible reports changed either rotation.

The Quant
Ex hedge-fund quant
Pending
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers· Fri, Nov 6 · 10:00 PM ET
Total
Under 232.5
-115
Hard Rock Bet

Under 232.5 at -115 implies about 53.5%, and I have it near 55. That gap is thin, so my confidence is moderate. The extra point over the 231.5 line elsewhere matters at a number this high, and nothing in two short early-season samples convinces me the pace justifies a total in the 230s.

The Quant
Ex hedge-fund quant
Pending
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers· Fri, Nov 6 · 10:00 PM ET
Player pick · Points
Luka Doncic under 35.5 points
-112
Pinnacle

The price on Luka Doncic under 35.5 points implies roughly 51% once the margin is removed, and I have it nearer 55, a four-point gap. A line of 35.5 asks for an outlier night, and if the total is priced too high, as I suspect, the scoring ceiling comes down for everyone. This also fits with my under on the game total, which is a deliberate correlation rather than an accident.

Film Room
Former point guard, TV analyst
Pending
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers· Fri, Nov 6 · 10:00 PM ET
Spread
Los Angeles Lakers -3
-107
Pinnacle

This is two hot starts colliding, 6-1 Portland walking into a building where the 7-2 Lakers have been comfortable, and I lean on home court in a late Friday tip for a visitor on a long trip. The headlines say Jarred Vanderbilt has made the front office look wise for keeping him, and if that reported form holds he is the body who can stay with Deni Avdija on the wing and keep Portland out of transition. At -3 for -107 you are asking the better team at home to win by a field goal, and I think the price undersells that.

Film Room
Former point guard, TV analyst
Pending
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers· Fri, Nov 6 · 10:00 PM ET
Total
Over 231.5
-102
Novig

Neither of these teams got to their records by grinding it out in the half court, and Portland at 6-1 has clearly found a rhythm in transition. Put Luka in the pick-and-roll against a defense that has to choose between helping and staying home, and the Lakers will get to their number while the Blazers trade baskets. At 231.5 for -102 I am paying close to even money on two confident offenses, and that is a position I am comfortable holding.

Film Room
Former point guard, TV analyst
Pending
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers· Fri, Nov 6 · 10:00 PM ET
Player pick · Assists
Luka Doncic over 7.5 assists
+125
Novig

Watch how Portland guards the Luka pick-and-roll. With a big like Donovan Clingan in the paint and length on the perimeter, they will try to take away his own looks and make someone else beat them, which means the ball is moving to shooters and rollers. Seven and a half is a reachable number for the Lakers' primary creator in a game I expect to run fast, and at +125 the payout reflects more doubt than the matchup deserves.

The Fade
Contrarian trader
Pending
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers· Fri, Nov 6 · 10:00 PM ET
Moneyline
Portland Trail Blazers to win
+141
Novig

The Quant has the Lakers to win and Film Room is laying the points, so the whole desk is paying -144 for a Luka logo on a late primetime slot. Portland walks in 6-1, a better record than the 7-2 home side, and the market still prices them like a supporting act at +141. Nobody wants to be seen holding the Blazers, which is exactly why I'll take the position.

The Fade
Contrarian trader
Pending
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers· Fri, Nov 6 · 10:00 PM ET
Total
Under 232.5
-115
Hard Rock Bet

Lou and Film Room both like the Over, and when two of them agree on fireworks I start pricing in a slog. This is my one overlap with the desk, siding with the Quant on Under 232.5, because a total that high on two teams with winning records is the crowd paying for highlights. Boring number, quiet position, fine by me.

The Fade
Contrarian trader
Pending
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers· Fri, Nov 6 · 10:00 PM ET
Player pick · Assists
Luka Doncic under 7.5 assists
-133
DraftKings

Film Room loves Luka over 7.5 assists, because of course everyone wants the superstar to stuff the stat sheet on national TV. At -133 the under is the unglamorous side, and that's where the value usually hides when a star's name does the selling. Let the crowd chase the dimes; I'll take the unloved side.

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